Unintended consequences: International trade shocks and electoral outcomes during the Second Spanish Republic, 1931–1936

Type de ressource
Article de revue
Auteurs/contributeurs
Titre
Unintended consequences: International trade shocks and electoral outcomes during the Second Spanish Republic, 1931–1936
Résumé
An intractable domestic conflict between forces on the right and the left roiled the Second Spanish Republic. We claim that international trade shocks exacerbated political instability. Leveraging an exposure design and disaggregated trade and employment data, we study the effects of import and export exposure on vote shares of parties and coalitions in the Republic's three elections, 1931, 1933, and 1936. An increase in import exposure had a modest effect on election outcomes. The primary vector of change was the disruption in export markets caused by the world depression and discriminatory trade practices, most importantly the United Kingdom's adoption of imperial preference. Trade dislocation harmed the left and benefitted the right. If trade had remained at 1928 levels, our projections show that the Popular Front would have gained a clear and comfortable majority in the decisive 1936 election.
Publication
Explorations in Economic History
Pages
101556
Date
2023-11-04
Abrév. de revue
Explorations in Economic History
Langue
Anglais
ISSN
0014-4983
Titre abrégé
Unintended consequences
Consulté le
20/01/2024 16:25
Catalogue de bibl.
ScienceDirect
Référence
Betrán, Concepción, et Michael Huberman. « Unintended consequences: International trade shocks and electoral outcomes during the Second Spanish Republic, 1931–1936 ». Explorations in Economic History, 4 novembre 2023, 101556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2023.101556.
Années
Corps professoral